Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.018204 0.020666 0.023348 0.026487 0.030063 0.034012 0.038708
2025-03-09 0.014467 0.017872 0.021912 0.027066 0.033478 0.041208 0.051259
2025-03-16 0.012087 0.015805 0.020478 0.026797 0.035144 0.045828 0.060599
2025-03-23 0.010833 0.014841 0.020123 0.027618 0.038021 0.052016 0.072378
2025-03-30 0.009322 0.013288 0.018729 0.026774 0.038425 0.054781 0.079652
2025-04-06 0.008266 0.012208 0.017814 0.026413 0.039351 0.058225 0.088087
2025-04-13 0.007228 0.011019 0.016590 0.025424 0.039182 0.059961 0.094046
2025-04-20 0.006812 0.010704 0.016601 0.026253 0.041787 0.066042 0.107229
2025-04-27 0.006410 0.010359 0.016518 0.026900 0.044131 0.071885 0.120569
2025-05-04 0.006090 0.010107 0.016544 0.027701 0.046767 0.078400 0.135629
2025-05-11 0.005604 0.009532 0.015986 0.027468 0.047628 0.082008 0.146030
2025-05-18 0.005216 0.009083 0.015592 0.027461 0.048850 0.086302 0.158008
2025-05-25 0.004788 0.008533 0.014990 0.027059 0.049381 0.089512 0.168509
2025-06-01 0.004547 0.008295 0.014912 0.027590 0.051654 0.096077 0.185993
2025-06-08 0.004213 0.007854 0.014428 0.027319 0.052391 0.099841 0.198444
2025-06-15 0.004064 0.007742 0.014531 0.028157 0.055310 0.107993 0.220392
2025-06-22 0.003708 0.007206 0.013793 0.027296 0.054809 0.109421 0.228783
2025-06-29 0.003448 0.006830 0.013329 0.026928 0.055248 0.112735 0.241401
2025-07-06 0.003139 0.006332 0.012582 0.025919 0.054271 0.113054 0.247611
2025-07-13 0.003058 0.006286 0.012730 0.026765 0.057254 0.121889 0.273386
2025-07-20 0.002961 0.006200 0.012788 0.027424 0.059893 0.130223 0.298904
2025-07-27 0.002885 0.006150 0.012916 0.028241 0.062948 0.139737 0.328132
2025-08-03 0.002717 0.005889 0.012578 0.028004 0.063616 0.143984 0.345382